The reality of climate change in Zimbabwe

OPINION – Zimbabwe is getting more vulnerable to climatic changes and local climatologists predict sectoral impacts affecting various sectors from environment, agriculture and food security, health, water resources, economic activities, human migration and physical infrastructure.

Climate change is the alteration of the earth’s climate caused by the
atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide as
a result of human activity. This eventually leads to global warming
where the temperatures of the earth’s surface have risen by 0.74
degrees celsius in the past 100 years.

Climatologists say that if recent trends continue or accelerate as per
scientific prediction, the earth’s temperatures may rise by 4 to 6
degrees Celsius by 2100.Other causes of climate change are due to
combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and modern farming methods
for example fertilizer use.

Zimbabwe has not been spared from climatic changes and current dry
spells affecting the country are being attributed to climate change.

Dr Priscah Mugabe, Deputy Director of the Institute of Environmental
Studies at the University of Zimbabwe, has noted effects of climate
change reflected in rainfall patterns in Zimbabwe from 1901 to 2005.

Mugabe says that there have been noteable shifts in the onset of the
rains, increased frequency of heavy rainfall events, more low rainfall
years, increased proportion of tropical cyclones reaching high
intensity, drizzle weather events have declined, mid-term dry spells
have become more frequent and intense. She adds that there are more
changes in pattern than amounts.

She adds that sectoral impacts are beginning to be witnessed on the
environment due to exposure to extreme weather events resulting in
droughts and floods and the expansion of semi-arid areas. For example,
some shifts in natural regions have been noted at stations such as
Chinhoyi, Chibero and their surroundings which were formerly in
natural region 2 but are now classified under natural region 3. The
size of natural region 1 has been reduced, while natural region 2 has
been pushed further east and natural region 3 has shifted slightly
upwards, whith Kwekwe and surroundings now classified as natural
region 4. (We need to elaborate more on the differences between the
natural regions)

Dr Mugabe says that ecosystem changes are being dramatised by
grasslands shifting to shrubby savanna and other biodiversity changes.
On the agriculture and food security sector, crop yields in marginal
zones have become more variable. Yields from rain-fed agriculture are
expected to decline by up to 50 percent by 2020. She says that climate
change introduces greater variability in maize yields.

“There is a strong likelihood that climate change will make natural
region 4 a non-maize producing area,” she says.

Reduced livestock production is anticipated as a result of reduced
forage base for cattle, increase of pests and diseases like tsetse
flies and ticks.

“A shift to smaller browsing animals like goats is anticipated,” Dr
Mugabe says.

A reduced productivity of crop-livestock systems of marginal rural
areas is anticipated.

On the health sector, an increase in malnutrition and consequent
disorders with implications on child growth and development is
anticipated including increased burden of diarrhoeal diseases. Also an
increase in the distribution of the malaria-bearing Anopheles gambiae
mosquito is anticipated.

High elevation areas currently on the fringes of endemic malaria zones
will be most susceptible to infestation including increased deaths,
disease and injury due to heat waves, floods, storms, fires and
droughts.

Dr Mugabe says that the implications are an increased burden on health
care systems.

On water resources, she says that challenges of availability and
accessibility are anticipated particularly affecting women. Reduced
irrigation output exarcerbated by other stressors for example
deforestation and siltation. Changes in hydrology and run-off are
anticipated for example at Lake Manyame upper catchment.

Anticipated economic impacts include increased food prices, diversion
of resources towards relief, loss of employment opportunities and
compromised hydro-based industries. For example at Lake Kariba from
1987 to 2005 lake surface temperatures rose by about 1 degree celsius,
significantly reducing kapenta fish yields.

On the Zambezi river, impacts have seen reduced flow affecting
hydro-electricity generation, biodiversity, affected fish breeding
conditions and tourism. Human migration is also being affected
resulting in localized population concentrations posed by climate
variability.

A new set of refugees is anticipated to migrate into new settlements
seeking new livelihoods and place additional demands on infrastructure
and ecosystem services.

“A variety of migration patterns could thus emerge for example
repetitive migrants and short term shock migrants with implications
for ecosystems and land use alterations,” Dr Mugabe notes.

She adds that physical infrastructure could fall prone to damage and
destruction due to extreme events such as floods posing an extra
burden on the government.

MDG (expand abbreviation) attainment will also be affected, for
example eradication of extreme poverty is unlikely due to reduced
agricultural production. Also attaining primary education will be
impossible due to gender imbalances and drop outs. Reducing child
mortality will be an uphill task due to increased diseases and
combating major diseases like HIV and AIDS will be a major problem due
to increased pressures and food insecurity.

Dr Mugabe also says that there is need for institutional support for
research to understand local risks, sensitivities and adaptation
options in response to climate change.

She says research on indigenous knowledge with science, gender
variabilities and appropriate adaptation systems is recommended.
Innovative technologies like water harvesting and soil water
conservation, grain post harvest technologies have to be introduced
including sending appropriate messages on extension, infrastructural
development and disaster management.

She adds that climate change in Zimbabwe is most certain, unreliable
and unpredictable. Its impacts are multifaceted with multiple
additional stressors such as poverty and land degradation.

“There is need for multifaceted responses that address context,” says Mugabe.

Dr Basile Tambashe, Country Representative for the United Nations
Population Fund (UNFPA) in Zimbabwe says that climate change is not
just about technology.

He says that it a problem brought about by human activity and people
are affected by climate change and need to adapt to it and only people
can stop it.

He says that during the past half century, rapid population growth and
industrialization have led to a rapid rise in greenhouse gas
emissions.

“We have now reached a point where humanity is approaching the brink
of disaster and Zimbabwe is beginning to feel the impact of climate
change,” says Tambashe.

Lungowe Sepo Marongwe, an Agricultural Extension Official with the
Ministry of Agriculture notes that overally agricultural productivity
in Zimbabwe, especially in the smallholder, sector is very low and
negative impacts of farming such as soil erosion and deforestation are
reducing yields even further.

Marongwe says that erratic rainfall and more extreme climatic patterns
necessitate improved farming patterns. She adds that droughts are
being experienced more and more frequently in Zimbabwe and water
conserving technologies which form part of conservation agriculture
play a significant role in efficient utilization of all precipitation
to ensure reasonable yields even during periods of low rainfall.

Advertisement